Delphi-Based Foresight of Global Olive Oil Market Trends

Abstract

Forecasting of supply and demand in the olive oil value chain remains a hot topic partly due to the lack of comprehensive and consensual estimates at the international level. The aim of this study is to contribute to overcome this weakness by providing a foresight of global supply and demand for olive oil for the upcoming years, using an iterative consensus-building Delphi approach. Therefore, we estimate the expected annual growth rates in the olive oil production and consumption worldwide as well as their likely impact on Spanish exports. Another key objective of the study is to elicit expert judgements on the factors that are likely to shape the predicted changes as well as the international challenges ahead. Results point to substantial future increases in production in new-producing countries, in parallel with a slower growth in the EU traditional suppliers whose focus will increasingly be placed on the quality and sustainability rather than the quantity of olive oil produced. Likewise, a significant growth in the world demand for olive oil is expected mostly in non-traditional markets, which will be spurred by greater awareness and appreciation of the product’s health benefits, combined with the changes in lifestyles and the increasing purchasing power of several consumer segments. These emerging markets represent valuable opportunities for marketing and promoting olive oil as a highly valued product, and offer promising prospects for the international expansion of olive oil companies. Findings support decision-making and long-term strategic planning along the olive oil value chain. Researchers can use the results as a reference point for further study of the dynamics of world supply and demand for olive oil.