Entry points of the Russo-Ukrainian war into the EU's food supply chain and potential impacts

Abstract

The Russo-Ukrainian war led to supply shocks in the EU's Food Supply Chain (FSC), impacting energy, fertilizer, and agricultural trade. By means of seven expert interviews, we assess possible impacts of these shock effects downstream entities within the EU’S FSC. Despite initial concerns about the need to compensate for Ukraine's previous agricultural commodity flows, exports to the EU have actually increased due to the abolition of tariffs and new land routes. However, the sanctions are changing the EU's trade relations in the energy and fertilizer sectors forcing it to find new trading partners. Such shifts in trade are accompanied by rising prices. Also, energy price spikes led to temporarily closure of fertilizer plants, compounding the problem. However, in times of undersupply of named goods, high GDP countries such as the EU states can afford to pay a premium price to fulfil their demand.